* There are thousands of independent oil and gas producers in the United States.
* Independent producers develop 90 percent of domestic oil and gas wells, produce 68 percent of domestic oil and produce 82 percent of domestic natural gas.
* Eric Schmidt gave a presentation at the Computer History Museum in 2001 on lessons learned through his experiences in the technology industry.
* The Computer History Museum talk is called "Unwinnable Wars: Personal Persepctives on Technology Leadership" and can be accessed through Google Video
Notes from the talk:
"Lessons Learned":
1. Against A Fast Competitor, A Cloning Strategy Doesn't Work
* For instance, Sun's attempt to develop a Win32 API Clone called WABI failed
2. There will always be an open source choice
3. Consortia don't work
4. There will always be a Microsoft or IBM, etc...
5. Multi-software unification doesn't work (license conflicts, etc...)
6. Your strategy should be complete market domination. Because if you don't, someone else will. There will always be unitary choice at every control point.
By including delicious-like hierarchical tags, the second version became much more useful.
Problem was, there was no business model.
So, I'm working on the third version now -- its designed to run on the yet-to-be-released GPS-enabled iPad.
So, you can take it out into the field and have it tell you about nearby oil wells, seismic surveys, leaseholds, remote sensing data, surface linears, offshore oil and gas blocks (if you are on a boat, for example), etc...
It's going to be pretty sweet. The business model is to charge for each region seperately: north texas, west texas, east texas, colorado, offshore shallow gulf of mexico, offshore deep-water gulf of mexico, north sea, australia, etc...
And since the data changes daily, it will be a subscription service.
It will be interesting to see how the markets react to this.
My personal theory, which I haven't seen anyone else state, is that the reason we heard from the bond raters last week about how the US might lose its AAA status is an oblique threat to so downgrade our rating if this bill passes. Even if we merely apply the conservative "three times more than the government says it will cost" we're stacking on another staggering amount of debt and entitlement on an economy that can't take it. (Given our current entitlement loadout even if our economy were to start rebounding tomorrow at record pace we're still in deep trouble in the not-so-distant future... and that's before we handed out yet more entitlements.) I'm not ready to "predict" it, but I wouldn't be surprised we lose it in the near future, as in, single-digit weeks.
They'll be right, too. An entity deep in debt whose only priority is to pile it on even deeper is an entity that is not going to be cleaning up its finances anytime soon. We'll have earned it.
I wish they (President and Congress) closed Iraq's financial black hole first and only then entered new spending spree.
That's what Obama promised during his presidential campaign. Sigh.
"It will be interesting to see how the markets react to this."
The markets reacted to this long ago, which is why we're not seeing much of a reaction to it now (the market is now up by about the amount it was down when the parent posted that link) - nobody had any real doubt as to whether this would ultimately pass or not, the only question was exactly what provisions would be taken out or put in to ensure that it did.
No comment on our debt problems, however - I'd tend to agree that eventually someone needs to pay the piper, though I think single-digit weeks might be underestimating it.
This might eventually scale down better than a microturbine (65kW is enough electricity for a large neighborhood (on average), and enough heat for a handful of homes), and I would bet it also operates better at part load.
Microturbines aren't especially quiet either, but it's hard to know how much noise this thing makes without more information.
There is a claim in the movie that Bloom box uses half of the natural gas that would be required to produce same amount of energy in the power plant. If that's true (even if it includes price of energy delivery and income of energy producers) it's really going to be revolution in energy production. Especially considering how much energy is currently produced from natural gas.
The United States has tens of trillions of dollars of mineral wealth (oil, natural gas, tungsten, gold, silver, copper, molly, palladium, rhodium, scandium, yttrium, bastnaesite, etc...) trapped in the ground by a gordion knot of government regulations and bureaucracy.
By fully exploiting this mineral wealth, the US could not only pay off its entire national debt, but also generate trillions of dollars of surplus tax revenue, pay for universal health care, cut taxes, eliminate the federal income tax, and create tens of millions of American jobs.
Interesting Fact: The United States has more oil and natural gas than any other country in the entire world, including Saudi Arabia. These are the official findings of the United States Senate, page 23: http://j.mp/3HIfQi
We could more than offset our trade deficit with China by feeding their voracious appetite for natural resources.
Another interesting fact: if Nevada were a country, it would be the world's 4th largest producer of Gold.
On a per-capita basis, the United States is sitting on a mind numbingly huge resource of untapped mineral wealth.
The United States has more oil and natural gas than any other country in the entire world, including Saudi Arabia.
Incorrect. We have more fossil fuel in units equivalent to barrels of oil, if you include coal. Without, we have about 1/5th as much oil and gas in proven reserves, but about 50% more than Saudi Arabia in probably-but-so-far-undiscovered reserves. However, the cost of recovery for those estimated reserves is likely to be far, far lower in Saudi Arabia than it is here.
Of course Saudi Arabia has no coal and we have (literally) gigatons of the stuff. But it's also the dirtiest fossil fuel we have, containing more carbon than oil and about twice as much as natural gas, and that externality increases the cost. So yeah, regulations and bureaucracy are holding us back to some extent, but regulations and bureaucracy also go a considerable way to making sure you have clean air to breathe and your groundwater isn't toxic. The mineral exploitation industry has, shall we say, a decidedly mixed record on cleaning up after itself.
Or, more likely, prices would get so low every foreign corporation would buy huge amounts of mineral to stock, thus plummeting your country's economy to the ground. Demand wouldn't increase significantly, so most companies would have a hard time surviving until their stocks could give profits, likely plummeting the rest of the world's economy, and all the related miners' rage and stuff.
As capitalism self-regulates only when economical actors seek profit, you can't expect an instantaneous recovery.
Furthermore, as it is the standard of value, gold's regulation is at least reasonable. If you didn't regulate it, inflation would artificially rise worldwide.
> Or, more likely, prices would get so low every foreign corporation would buy huge amounts of mineral to stock
That didn't happen with oil production was unregulated, so why would it happen now?
> Furthermore, as it is the standard of value, gold's regulation is at least reasonable. If you didn't regulate it, inflation would artificially rise worldwide.
The above implies that gold prices are regulated. Please cite the relevant regulation. (Gold prices are regulated in some countries. If the regulated price is lower than the world price, those countries don't have any gold.)
Yes, gold production is regulated and constrained in many places, but the above claim is different.
Oh yes, the usual idiotic bullshit -- "if it wasn't those liberals with those environmental protection laws we would all be millionaires and have our own ponies."
Let me just tell you some of the more obvious ways you are wrong:
"Interesting Fact: The United States has more oil and natural gas than any other country in the entire world, including Saudi Arabia. These are the official findings of the United States Senate, page 23: http://j.mp/3HIfQi
This is simply wrong. And the very document you reference proves it wrong. If you see table 5 of the document you provided, the US is well below Saudi Arabia and many other countries in oil and natural gas. It has about 1/10 of the oil reserves of saudi arabia and about 1/6 of the natural gas of Russia. Even if you add oil and natural gas up, the US is not first -- saudi arabia and Russia both have more oil and nat gas than the US.
Now if you think the regulations are the problem, just look at Russia. Russia is notorious for having a corrupt government where environmental and other regulations are broken all the time. It also has about three times as much oil and about 6 times as much nat gas as the US. It is also less than half of the populations of the US. So, by your logic, Russia should be much richer than the US, because it has more mineral wealth and does not have the regulations that prevent its exploitation. But that is obviously not the case. The living standard of Russia is still much lower than the US.
What might have made you confused is that if you add up coal the US does become first. But of course coal has not made any country rich after the mid 20th century. It is too expensive to transport for export and it is dirt cheap because it is dirty, causes global warming and disease, and nobody wants to use it unless they have no other choice. Good luck basing our economy on coal.
The thing about Nevada may be right (I do not have time to check) but in global economic terms gold production is simply not a big deal.
Of course you face the more fundamental problem that you think somehow producing raw materials will get us out of a global recession. The problem with global recessions is that demand for everything tanks and that includes raw materials. The so called "voracious appetite" of China is only voracious because they use it to feed the voracious appetite of America for consumer goods. If Americans keep getting poorer that appetite of China will no longer be voracious and raw materials prices will keep falling.
Raw materials only drive economies when they are relatively small economies that can hitch themselves on larger consumer spending economies that are booming. Thus, for example, Russia was able to improve their economy by selling raw materials to booming US, Europe and China. But a major economy like the US simply cannot rely on raw materials or it will quickly become a minor economy.
The claim that Nevada is the world's fourth largest gold producer is accurate. It goes China, South Africa, Australia, Nevada, as states go.
It is also the world's low cost gold producer, at an average of $260 an ounce.
The part about mining being pain because of regulations is also as accurate as a subjective claim can be. My father works with Phelps Dodge, and they recently opened the first copper mine to be opened in the States in 20-odd years. I'd have to ask him for the details. Comparatively speaking, in Chile the pollution due to mining isn't awful, especially considering a lot of it occurs in places where it only rains every 400 years. It is not really corrupt, at least not much more so than the States, and there are straightforward laws that govern how you deal with the environment. If you want to dispose of mercury, for example, you have to solidify it with special salts before you bury it in a predetermined way. You don't have to destroy the environment.
Having said that, I doubt the US would be incredibly richer by exploiting these natural resources. But I believe it would be substantially richer; opening this up would increase the GDP by an extra 5% for maybe 5 years in a row. That order of magnitude.
"Reserves of Fossil Fuels Plus Technically Recoverable Undiscovered Oil and Natural Gas:"
---
Russia: 293.7
---
Saudi Arabia Estimated Undiscovered Oil and Gas: 231.3
---
United States Undiscovered Oil and Gas: 351.5
---
351.5 > 293.7 > 231.3
Regardless, I'm putting my life where my mouth is. I started my own oil and natural gas exploration and production company in Denver.
I've also spun off a second company, a mineral royalties company, that is focused on the acquisition and divestiture of North American mineral rights in producing open-pit mines.
And finally, I've started a third US natural resources company, SonicFrac, to develop a solid-state fracturing device for optimizing the production of US Shale gas wells.
I also invest every last penny that I take home back into US mineral rights, US oil and gas prospects, and US minining royalties.
I own stock in dozens of publicly traded oil, gas, mining, and resource development companies.
Natural resources are the first thing I think about when I wakeup in the morning, and the last thing I think about when I go to bed at night.
I'm 26.
Perhaps I'm irrationally optimistic about US resource wealth...
I don't believe that I am.
But, you _need_ to be irrationally passionate about what you do. Whatever it is.
If you're running a consumer internet company, and are not irrationally passionate about its future, I doubt you could persevere through the trials and tribulations of being an entrepreneur.
I am a US natural resources entrepreneur. And I am zealous about what I do. You should be, too.
Undiscovered oil and gas means (logically enough) oil and gas that has not been discovered yet. The existence of this stuff is a mere guess. Not only that but different people are making estimates for different countries using different methodologies, and different countries have different incentives for under or over estimating.
You cannot say that the US has more oil and gas based on estimates or guesses as to the undiscovered oil.
But wait. Lets assume that you are right. Lets assume that these undiscovered oil and gas estimates are perfect and all of the estimated undiscovered oil and gas actually exists. Well then if you try adding up these undiscovered estimates of table 6 to the proven oil and gas reserves of table 5 you will still find that russia and saudi arabia have far more oil and gas than the US. So your initial statement is still incorrect.
Well congratulations on being an entrepreneur and good luck. I hope you get some of that undiscovered oil. But you should not let your enthusiasm nudge you into massaging the facts.
"Raw materials only drive economies when they are relatively small economies that can hitch themselves on larger consumer spending economies that are booming"
The United States' consumer-led economy isn't "booming".
"The problem with global recessions is that demand for everything tanks and that includes raw materials."
Have you checked the price of gold and oil recently? Those definitely _are_ booming :-)
"The so called "voracious appetite" of China is only voracious because they use it to feed the voracious appetite of America for consumer goods. If Americans keep getting poorer that appetite of China will no longer be voracious and raw materials prices will keep falling."
China's economy is expected to grow 8.3% this year, and raw materials prices are soaring. Believe me, I know :)
The only thing that's falling is the consumer-sector of the economy. The US economy is bifrucating between core industries and the consumer sector.
I think it's reasonable to expect that the consumer side of the US economy will contract dramatically from the 70% of economic activity that it currently represents -- it has to come more in-line with the rest of the world.
It's a fallacy to think that the consumer has to drive economic growth -- that's been a phenomenon unique to the US since WWII.
"Coal is too expensive to transport for export". Seriously?
The United States exports over 60 million tons of coal each year.
"Good luck basing our economy on coal."
China is building one new coal fired power plant each week. The OECD projects China's economy to grow 8.3% this year -- while the rest of the world is mired in a recession. China's entire economy is based on coal.
Warren buffet just bet the entire future of Berkshire Hathaway, his life's work, on coal -- BNSF is the prime mover of US coal exports to China.
China's economy is based on what they do with the coal not on exporting coal. I.e., it is based on the goods they produce from factories that run on coal.
I guess I was wrong about coal exports, the US actually does export some coal, but the US economy or economic recovery cannot be based on coal. It currently fetches about $70 per metric ton, and it is only going to go down.
Warren Buffet made a bet that as oil prices go up things more valuable than coal will start getting moved on those railroads.
Oh and if you want a coal based economy you can see some pictures of those chinese cities where you cannot see 100 feet in front of your nose. Even China is trying to get off coal as quickly as it can.
We had initially considered using MTurk as the backend for our transcription service. But found it difficult to tailor to the transcription process we had in mind.
The system we use now has multiple stages. We split up the files into smaller chunks which are then picked up by our transcribers. Each transcript is then reviewed, speaker initials and timestamps are added and then they are finally collated.
We've gotten pretty decent results with our system so far with some very satisfied customers.
So CastingWords has obviously made MTurk work and work well, but finding ways to maintain quality levels and consistency has not been an easy process. We've had to give up completely on "quick and dirty" (IE super-cheap) transcription. Instead we focus on a much higher quality product. And maintain quality by using with many many (mainly QA) steps - the shortest, simplest transcript is seen by 14 turkers - and runs through a 7 step process. And with added audio length the pipeline gets even longer.
The current userbase will just be transfered to mint. This "end-of-life" is not the typical end-of-life where you are ending a product/service. The product is still there, they are just merging with mint.
Freight rail efficiency is measured in "labor-cost-per-revenue-ton-mile".
The cost of trucking is dominated by the fuel-cost-per-ton-mile.
Whereas the cost of moving 1 ton of goods over rail is dominated by the cost of labor, the cost of moving 1 ton of goods via truck is dominated by the cost of fuel.
In point of fact, rail freight gets ~436 ton miles per gallon.
The only mode of transport that gets more ton-miles-per-gallon is water transport (DSO, dry bulk shipping, oil and gas tankers, panamax, river barges, etc...)
The edge case is liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons, which can be transported via pipeline. It's no surprise that Buffet has been buying up oil and gas pipelines over the past several years.
The only catch here is that waterway transport inside the United States has sub-optimal efficiency due to the Jones Act.
If you are young, energetic, and college-educated with a solid background in an engineering discipline, there are jobs for the taking in the oil business.
The average age of an employee at an oil and gas E&P (exploration and production) company in 2009 is 55 years old. These are highly prized employees with experience and knowledge that is in short supply in the industry.
Over the next 25 years (through 2035), the global hydrocarbons industry is estimated to invest 22 TRILLION dollars of capital (2009 USD) to meet what is expected to be a doubling of world energy demand.
Do the math.
Computer scientists, chemical engineers, geophysicists, mechanical engineers, biologists, petroleum engineers, etc... It doesn't matter. You would be surprised at the voracious appetite of the global hydrocarbons industry for new technology and talent.
I'm obviously biased, being in the business myself. But, the next time you're at a college engineering job fair, spend a few minutes at the booths of the E&P companies. You may be intrigued.
How do you think they'd react to (a) Economics (b) Econometrics? I'm going to guess (a) would be laughed at but that a quasi-statistician can always find work in a field with lots of data.
I can speak to the value of multivariate optimization in the oil and gas business.
Specifically, the U.S. onshore natural gas business is currently focused on what are called shale gas "resource plays". These are large contiguous blocks of acreage -- hundreds of thousands of acres -- over which thousands of wells are drilled one-after-another, in a manufacturing process. What makes this possible is a large, contiguous, underlying resource of natural gas reserves, trapped in tight rocks.
The key to profitably exploiting these resource plays is finding the right "formula" that can be repetitively applied to drilling and completing each well. There is no time to individually sit down and engineer each well. All you can do is analyze the data after the fact.
The profitability of each gas well is influenced by hundreds of variables. For instance, you have to "fracture stimulate" a gas well using a variable combination of hundreds of chemicals, each in a varying volume, with a variable pressure, to a variable depth. The well itself may have a variable number of frac stages, with a variable number of horizontal lateral wells connecting it to the reservoir, with a variable length for each lateral.
The question you have to answer is: given thousands of data points over thousands of individual wells, what is the most profitable "formula" for drilling a well in a particular resource play? Profitability is defined as the present value of the discounted future cash flow of the well using a discount rate of 10% -- you'll hear people talk about "the PV10". You know how each well has performed after it was drilled, you know what its profitability was, and you know what formula was applied to drill and to complete it. And you have this data for hundreds of wells -- each using a different combination of variables. And there's new data added every day.
There is a _lot_ of money riding on the right answer to this question.
There is a _massive_ amount of data in the oil and gas business. And every year there are entirely new classes of data being generated. 2D seismic, then 3D seismic, then microseismic, completion data, well logs, magnetic, gravity, surface linears, etc...
It's not surprising that one of the largest customers to the supercomputing industry -- after defense -- is the oil and gas business.
One trick here is that this data is usually locked up inside proprietary databases shared amongst companies in different industry consortia. So, you really have to be a player in the business to have access to the data -- that doesn't mean that you have any clue how to analyze it, however.
And there are big QA problems with this data, too. So, you have to deal with that as well.
Stats:
* There are thousands of independent oil and gas producers in the United States.
* Independent producers develop 90 percent of domestic oil and gas wells, produce 68 percent of domestic oil and produce 82 percent of domestic natural gas.
* Most independents have fewer than 20 employees.
See the "Independent Petroleum Association of America": http://www.ipaa.org