I was in the capital markets during the COVID era, focusing on transactions for tech companies. I will take the bet that if OAI tries to IPO it will be WeWork 2.0 x100. Get ready for an even more creative version of “Community adjusted EBITDA”
On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO. Not only is a 10% float still absolutely massive, but the world is extremely unstable with the war in Iran and the US is in a recession when you factor out inflated growth driven by AI. Not to mention the Yen carry trade unwinding - there is so much loaded in the economy ready to blow up… I think the facade will collapse if OAI actually goes for it.
Umm the yen carry trade unwound in August of 2024. It hasn’t been a factor in the markets for over a year:)
> On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO.
The best time for an open AI and anthropic ipo. They are hot now, the macro environment doesn’t weigh into that calculus.
Also a 10% float isn’t massive, most companies ipo with anywhere from 20-40% of their total share count.
And being a 20 year veteran means you can cut through all the noise you mention and focuse in what matters. At all most all points in History there is doom and gloom, 20 years gives you the experience to know most of the doom and gloom never matters.
You go public when you get the chance.
I appreciate you comment and I hope I helped update your understanding of how things work!!
Oh, sorry I thought you meant the percentage would be huge.
Yes it’s a big ipo but early indications are that they’d be about 2x over subscribed if they ipo’d today from what the sell side is saying and I don’t doubt it from what other funds are saying.
Most fund managers have an IQ of 50. And they get paid by fees. They will put your pension money into OpenAI without a doubt, as it’s easier to participate, crash and shrug that stay out.
“Nobody got fired for hiring McKinsey” in the PE bros era.
> no mechanism in the constitution for canceling elections
Sure, but there's mechanism in real life that allows cancelling elections like sending your newly funded ICE goons to polling places. Ideally everyone follows the constitution but in reality (even looking at past administrations) there's nothing stopping the executive from taking an action and saying "oops guess we'll let the courts figure it out!"
I agree. Stability of a system is not so much about whether there is some mechanism or force that wants to push it away from equilibrium (because there probably is some such perturber outside of a perfectly controlled environment), but stability is more about whether there exists a stabilizing mechanism to bring the system back toward equilibrium after it starts to deviate.
Yes, of course they are different. We're not embroiled in an active Civil War with tens of thousands dead and a third of the country having seceded. Most things are different from that.
They may be, but if there are no elections, there is no United States. Constitutionally, its government is predicated on having elected representatives.
I could see Trump trying this, but I also can see dozens of other people or groups, some richer, more powerful, more competent, and more ruthless than Trump, just waiting in the wings for the guardrails to come off to make a play to rule the territory of the former United States. If he tries and succeeds at this it's open-season. It's not a Trump dictatorship, it's a civil war, akin to the Chinese Civil War after the emperor fell or the Syrian civil war after the Arab Spring.
Yes, compared to other Apples, which fall apart if you look at them funny.
The Apple Neo is only slightly better than an HP or Dell for the same price. But HP and Dell don't need to maintain a service center in every major city and shopping center. They make cheap devices that just work.
> I’m not sure what sort of signals you’ve gotten from Meta that would suggest they are above this type of behavior?
It wasn't Meta's morals that gave me any signals to that effect. It was the potential legal minefield on top of the engineering challenges [1] that made it so I didn't even consider this as a possibility. In fact I'm still confused. I don't understand how they would be pulling this off despite those challenges, and I would love to.
The only thing I could come up with, assuming this isn’t a technical glitch, is that TikTok already had the infra to silence anything they want on the platform and as soon as the keys were handed over they turned that filter up to 100%
Surely they do that to filter out Tiannamen Square content already…. Now they’re good to go for any authoritarian gov who wants to restrict what their citizens can see their own government doing.
On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO. Not only is a 10% float still absolutely massive, but the world is extremely unstable with the war in Iran and the US is in a recession when you factor out inflated growth driven by AI. Not to mention the Yen carry trade unwinding - there is so much loaded in the economy ready to blow up… I think the facade will collapse if OAI actually goes for it.
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