Would you be able to foresee the existence of something like Uber back when you were using your Nokia phone (10+ years ago)? We can't imagine what VR technology will be used for.
I've been reading about Richard Hamming a lot lately, and this stuck with me when he was talking about AI.
"You must struggle with your own beliefs if you are to make any progress in understanding the possibilities and limitations of computers in the intellectual area. To do this adequately you must formalize your beliefs and then criticize them severely, arguing one side against the other, until you have a fair idea of the strengths and weakness of both sides."
In this case, I don't think the technology was as surprising as the fact that it came from outside the Taxi industry. Who would have thought that it would be easier to create a global fleet of drivers from scratch than it would be to utilize existing infrastructure.
I do see your point though. Someone may have been thinking of this concept 10 years ago, but it certainly wasn't me.
I actually did want to make something similar, born out of a desire to digitize my local transit schedules. I tried emailing my local transit agency, but they were uninterested and I didn't realize the kind of hustle you needed to get such stuff started.
I then had an idea using SMS and windows pocket PCs to basically make something like Uber for a software taxi dispatch system. You would SMS a number and then get updates via SMS on the status of your cab. Cabs would have the pocket PCs installed with an external GPS module. I would sell it to taxi dispatch companies as a way to make more money. I was just starting university although, and felt quite overwhelmed with the idea of actually selling it to anyone.
I have to say - this actually looks like a great idea for products like detergents, etc. I can see how this can work on a laundry machine. Apart from that... Where would I put the button for Bounty? Or Gillette?
The bet is a punctuation point on a discussion. Sam is already taking risk on current valuations, another $100K here or there isn't going to move the needle. The real stakes are reputation for prognostication. And the point to me is getting VCs on the other side of the debate to put a public stake in the ground, and hopefully give their arguments for why.
So I don't find this taker particularly interesting. In the context of an industry wide debate, the opinion of someone who doesn't have an audience similar to Sam's doesn't really mean much. Not that they aren't smart, just that they aren't someone influencing the discussion. Which is what this is mostly about.
And to say "I take the bet" without any discussion of why really misses the whole point.
Of course Sam should take this bet. But I'd suggest that he amend his proposal: Find people with enough audience to change the discussion, who are talking about bubble valuations, and ask them specifically to put a stake in the ground on this.
The bet also serves as an interesting hedge for anyone whose net worth is already heavily correlated with the success of the tech sector (which certainly includes VCs). 100k is not enough to really matter to a GP at a 500MM fund, especially if it goes to charity either way. But there are plenty of smaller VCs or even startup founders (including myself) who would do that deal not because they're skeptical of tech's fundamentals, but as a way to counteract exposure to an overall macro/tech downfall.
moving the goal posts? poor tactical decision, sam. you've just undermined your whole position.
before, with the open definition of VC, it expressed a high confidence in your bet.
now, by limiting the pool of potential bet takers, you are weakening your overall goal of maintaining public perception that there is no bubble.
the analogy is boxing. before, you were putting a huge bet that you were the best boxer in the world and you challenged any other boxer to challenge you so you could prove it. now that someone has, it's like saying that you are the best boxer in the world, and anyone can challenge you to prove it, except this challenger because reasons. it sounds like an excuse not to fight and makes you look scared.
lol.
it sounds like your confidence in your position concerning bubbles has been weakened, but you are trying to convince yourself it is as strong as ever by saying no REAL venture capitalist has taken your bet, so you must still be right.
I imagine he's interested in a bet with a big VC because they are the ones complaining about high, "bubble" valuations. I doubt Sam really cares one way or another if some random guy/the American public/whoever thinks we are in a bubble.
I know. sorry, I probably wasn't clear: it doesn't matter if he takes another bet or not, what matters is that he wishes that he would have had more restrictive requirements for who is able to accept his bet.
the logic being that, the more restrictive requirements, the less people who meet them, which means less probability that someone would take his bet, which implies that he never really wanted anyone to take the bet in the first place.
the subtext is that sam is not as confident in his position as he would like you to believe.
trye, but the importance of the two criteria aren't weighted the same.
plus he isn't doubling down on the same bet: he's changing the new bet to be more in his favor, so the additional 100,000 is actually worth less than the original 100,000. (not monetary value, but rather the money's value as representation of the strength of his belief that the bubble won't pop before 2020).
That's welsher talk, if you make a bet and a person accepts then you have to take the bet or STFU.
If you believe the person will not follow through that's one thing, maybe both parties should put $100K in escrow, talking about the purpose of the bet is weak.
Pretty much everything a startup does is find resources that are underutilized and then utilize them for something outside their main purposes. If it is someone who's donating $100K to charity for publicity...well, that's a pretty neat hack, and one that everybody wins from.
Fine, well done. But no one should care that Sam Altman bet that we are not in a bubble against someone who doesn't care much one way or the other but wants his name in the paper.
The only thing I'm really interested in is why sama decided the other bettor had to be a VC. That's a pretty silly requirement.
Anyway this isn't a ballsy bet at all, really. Guys on 2p2 (poker forums) routinely make huge proposition bets that are more fun, interesting, and risky than this--occasionally for charity, as well (though not that often).
Losing this bet will likely do no more to either bettor than losing a $5 bar wager would do to me. Pony up the cash, shake victor's hand, move on with my day and forget about it.
I agree, this bet would make more sense if the other party was a hedge fund manager or someone else with a professional interest in being bearish on tech innovators. No active serious VC who's might have raise a fund or invest at a high valuation is going to bet publicly against the unicorns. Might as well just retire.
I personally wouldn't feel comfortable putting up a profile for a service such as Uber or Lyft. I especially wouldn't feel comfortable for my SO to have a profile - she already feels uncomfortable using these services by herself (though safer than a taxi, sexual assault incidents do happen). I'm not sure if this is a step in the right direction. The drivers in my area aren't people I would want to connect with or share personal info...
Instead of sharing personal info, why can't we know when the driver started driving for Uber or Lyft? Some have just started and have 5.0 ratings even though they may have only completed a handful of rides...
