And the reason no one brings up Ukraine is because we used more interceptors in three days than were sent to Ukraine in the entire 4+ years of war. It’s a complaint that doesn’t make sense unless one is jd Vance.
Why would you think returning to Obama's Iran deal would be a win? Actually, let me word this better: how could you possibly think that anyone in the White House for the past decade would think returning to Obama's Iran deal is better than this war?
The reason it's so incredible you could think such a thing is the White House has been saying how horrible that deal was in every interview for months, and of course intermittently for a decade.
"So a win will be returning to Obama’s Iran deal?"
Where in that long comment before yours did you see an implication that anyone was thinking a return to Obama's Iran deal was a win? Why did you use the word "so"?
They talked about Iran giving up its HEU, i.e. basically returning its uranium stocks to the Obama deal days when Iran agreed to even get rid of its modest quantity of medium enriched uranium.
Why are people so literal these days? The poster didn’t use a magic buzzword so no one can connect dots?
An no, I don’t actually think they’d consider returning to Obama’s deal would be a win because if I had to guess anything Obama did is the definition of bad in may peoples books.
So, to clarify, you were just trying to spread the meme that Iran giving up its HEU was equivalent or inferior to just holding to Obama's deal, in spite of your belief the commenter you were replying to would not agree with this, nor the instigators of this war?
Maybe don't troll. Or sealion. Or shill. Or propagandize. Not sure which of these is the best description, but it's one of them.
That is not correct and the comment you replied to even pointed out several ways it hurt the US other than that
Inflation is the only Immediate pain. The other harms will play out over years.
While war games already predicted we’d run out of basically all defensive and offensive weapons almost immediately in a confrontation with China, that wasn’t demonstrated yet. Now it has been proven, but not even with China, with much smaller and less powerful Iran. We used a major portion of our stuff, it didn’t accomplish anything major, and now we’re already depleted like a paper tiger.
> While war games already predicted we’d run out of basically all defensive and offensive weapons almost immediately in a confrontation with China, that wasn’t demonstrated yet. Now it has been proven, but not even with China, with much smaller and less powerful Iran. We used a major portion of our stuff, it didn’t accomplish anything major, and now we’re already depleted like a paper tiger.
This is a positive, not a negative. It's a needed wake up call and better to get it now instead of during a war with China.
“It’s clear that Polymarket and Kalshi host these markets to serve bettors, not to produce useful information. Take Kalshi’s “Best AIs this week?” markets, which not only cover too short a time period to be useful in any decision.”
Yeah the site is clearly optimized for betting at the expense of the purported purpose.
Looking at polymarket, wagers that could yield interesting odds are generally turned into meaningless junk by contrived timelines or other technicalities that aren’t at all related to the core thesis of the wager. I.e the flashy thing the wager talked about wasn’t the main contention of the odds, an artificially constrained timeline or other not useful technical detail is what the wagers hinge on.
It’s also strange how so few had advance cutoffs. The person with “info” is incentivized to hold their bet to the last minute, so even accepting the premise that the markets provide info, the wagers seem structurally designed to give that info when’s it’s too late to be of use. If the wanted to fix that it would be easy but they don’t. It’s as simple as forcing long run wagers to have a gap between the wager period and the resolution time point.
Yes my comment was a bit of a knee jerk reaction to seeing a statement, but take a pause and consider what caused it.
It shouldn’t be surprising that a call for shrinking government after the doge fiasco raises counter examples, especially in response to an article on doge.
And since your statement was so broad and generalized, it doesn’t really lend itself to constructive debate.
But yes this site strives for more quality discussion.
It seems we both agree though, but have different views on where to set the scale.
We agree on the fundamental yeah? Can we agree that while regulation and enforcement, aka big government, is annoying and costly, yet at the same time a good number of regulations are or were necessary due to being written in literal blood.
We agree on that right? That neither of us want melamine poisoning the milk small kids drink nor do we want our kitchen counter tops to be priced in terms of lung chunks of workers. But also acknowledge that regulations hurt small businesses and need balance.
Personally, I don't think corporate liabilities should be nearly as limited as they are and that something like negligent homicide from a company could/should potentially include the death penalty for corporate officers. In the case of very large spread issues, corporate officers and board members should be at risk of losing personal wealth as well.
That said, I'd rather not be using taxpayer funds for NGOs that mostly funnel money into political propaganda or circumcisions in another country.
Just because I don't think the federal govt should be nearly as big as it is, doesn't mean I embrace or encourage outright evil. I was only making a statement in that I largely supported the idea of dramatically cutting back on a lot of federal speding, and in particular foreign spend on dubious causes.
No no no, the outcome revealed new information as the market intends! That info is that people had discounted the rare weather event “a 10% chance of localized hairdryers” on the day in question. The bettor predicted this better than everyone else, making their info public by placing a bet!!! /s
It’s a scam when the house takes $1 from that $100 each time. These unlicensed internet gambling halls most certainly take their cut, whatever that amount is.
It's only a scam if they don't disclose that. If the house brought the two people together I'd say it's fair as services rendered. I don't get mad when a bar charges more than the base cost of the alcohol.
> now everyone but the house is guaranteed to lose.
Gambling is about more than making money. Most gamblers do not expect to win, they do it because its entertaining. Paying $1 for the opportunity to participate in the coin flip is something many people are happy to do. Negative EV does not equal losing because you forgot to include the entertainment value.
Scams involve deception. There is no deception in a business that is upfront about taking a fee to match gamblers.
Why are you narrowly focusing on gluten intolerance when this line of comments appears to be denying whether gut biome is worth caring about due to having impacts on health?
Because the parent used their anecdote of gluten intolerance to explain why caring about the gut microbiome matters. But traditional gluten intolerances are not related to the gut microbiome.
We also don't really understand why things like a FODMAP diet work. It's not that feeding your gut bacteria is bad, it's actually pretty good. But for some people it's bad, and they get symptoms they attribute to gluten intolerance.
Legumes, onions, whole grain etc that are high FODMAP are good for you. Fiber is good for you, it lowers your risk of metabolic diseases and helps your digestion. But, for some people, it's bad for their digestion. That's weird.
So all that is to say that, while gut bacteria matters, it varies person to person and we can't definitely say what food is good for the microbiome and what isn't.
I think the interesting point as evidenced by the fecal transplant therapy is that it's not "the" microbiome, it's "your" microbiome. Maybe some people have bad (C. difficile) or incompatible (various E. coli strains) microbiomes and need a microbiome hard reboot.
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