The Japanese economy and yen carry trade is a close second.Rising oul prices and reduced output due to the conflicts in the Middle East could filter through to increasing yields on Japanese debt. In turn, the yen interventions have to continue to keep it lower than 160, which seems to be the psychological barrier for the yen carry trade.

I view the market as celestial objects influencing each other through a lattice similar to spacetime

Everything influences each other with varying gravitational pull

At one point the mental model was more like a web, but spacetime with mass matches the model more closely

Money is a lot like mass, it has it's own gravity.

and it doesn’t disappear [1], much like law of conservation

at any given time there is a finite amount of it most easily observed in currencies’ relative price to another currency, and its movement between owners causes distortions in asset prices

most people I’m around and most trading indicator developers I’ve seen don’t seem to conceptualize the flow of value around the economy. so it feels niche and maybe visualizing this mental model can help many people

[1] central banks can functionally delete money in their bond purchase and roll off programs

The history around how 440hz came to be the standard is pretty interesting in itself.

Hugging Face wasnt really an escaped model that presents a kind of future threat. The task the model was given lead it to discover certain admin credentials that were left publicly in Github. All it did was use that to complete the task.

With other countries and open source, not to mention all the other companies, Open AI choosing to pause development wont change the course. Only OpenAI will lose.

Unless the secret is that no amount of compute or data can progress things any further because we have already reached the limit for what predicting the next token can do. Most of the advancements lately have been on the agentic side of things.

The massive amount of health, science and math problems being solved by AI has largely not materialized yet. Is this a sign the model capability has been over sold?

There are economic consequences to this as well because the data center build out has been a kind of circular financing. This has caused all kinds of macro economic impacts from increased prices to even the Treasury market itself having to compete with debt issued for the build out. No one knows what will happen once the data center build out stops, or if the yen carry trade continues unwinding, or if Treasury yields have to keep rising to compete with debt issued by the "Mag 7".

Once they stop spending in the current circular arrangement, then the profits that exist on paper disappear, and the bubble could pop.

So really for every reason, OpenAI cant really slow development. Unless there is a kind of Moores law for what predicting the next token can achieve.

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Or placed in an asylum next to the people who designed XML

If AI has a major impact on the job market as some believe, then it would be interesting to see a society where AI related profits are used to provide free education for everyone who wants it.

At some point they will begin running out of human created data for model training and schools with strict AI policies will be the best source of non AI data going forward.

Thats kind of a symbiotic relationship that makes sense for students and AI companies.

Once AI output begins replacing human output and the models begin training on it, there may be increasingly few places left for data that isnt likely to lead to a model collapse.

San Francisco should bring back the original Burning Man at Bakers Beach.

DHH was on the Lex Fridman podcast talking about this recent release of Omarchy in that most of it is "vibe coded". It is mostly just a bash script to configure Linux, but his approach is interesting.

AI as a core part of the OS that can just change or add anything you want. Linux is great for this because it has access to the source code for everything.

He said he didnt review the code line by line, just looked at the shape of it. Whatever that means.

> DHH was on the Lex Fridman podcast talking about this recent release of Omarchy in that most of it is "vibe coded".

> He said he didnt review the code line by line, just looked at the shape of it. Whatever that means.

Did... did you even read my comment before replying to it? We know it's vibe-coded, we know it's bash scripts, and we know what it means

I was just adding more context than your post included

Kalshi hired Donald Trump Jr as a strategic advisor with a salary reported to be around $300,000 per year. Recently there was a meeting between him and various State Attorneys General, where the message was back off prediction markets. Not too long after that other areas of the Trump Admin sent a letter basically saying the same thing.

And so the circuit courts coming to very different conclusions from the 9th circuit represents the inherent political corruption involved in the court system.

Circuit splits get resolved at the Supreme Court and I would make a prediction that it isnt a coin flip, probably more of a safe bet.

Every person says this even in notes