I agree... like an economic bubble, I don't think it's possible to ever "call the top" except in retrospect. But it does worry me. I don't think human beings like to think about it because it bruises our collective ego to think that there might be a bunch of stuff that we're too dumb to get.
But I do wonder if we've passed "peak innovation." The biggest reason is the 1960s. It really feels like virtually every piece of technology that we use outside of maybe biotech was invented in the 50s and 60s.
Looking back, I see two peaks. I see a peak in per capita innovation in the early 20th century, and then a second peak in absolute terms centered at approximately 1960.
But I do wonder if we've passed "peak innovation." The biggest reason is the 1960s. It really feels like virtually every piece of technology that we use outside of maybe biotech was invented in the 50s and 60s.
Looking back, I see two peaks. I see a peak in per capita innovation in the early 20th century, and then a second peak in absolute terms centered at approximately 1960.