> Apple's strategy is holding on to the brand, while competitors slowly chip away...
This generation could indeed mount the first meaningful blow to legacy PC-based gear as primary device, but it's not coming from a competitor.
> Once Windows and Mac are finished, it'll only be a matter of coming up with a new phone os...
Did you miss Apple's "What's a computer?" campaign?
iPadOS 13 is the new tablet usability OS for the only primary device quality tablet on the market.
Using a USB-C dock, my same desktop gear works with my MacBook or my iPad Pro. I can even use my full size monitor, keyboard, and trackball driving Windows in a Citrix VDI.
- - -
> In fact I predict the next big consumer hit will be a point-and-shoot camera with a phone os.
That was already a thing in 2012: Samsung Galaxy Camera. They also tried the Samsung Galaxy NX, and the Samsung Galaxy Camera 2.
Didn't catch on, but hasn't stopped people from trying over and over:
Those mirrorless camera-phone things you linked look like Microsoft tablets before iPads came. Microsoft had the idea, just not the execution chops, for many many years.
It's only confirming my conviction that it is an unbelievably potent idea, that needs a few billion poured into it to do it right.
Regarding PC vs tablet vs phone - that is not what I'm thinking at all. It is not a matter of dummies wanting OSes for 7 year olds as their primary device, it's that computation will not be done on your hardware, it'll be displayed on your hardware aka pretty lcd/oled screen. Cameras are the one exception to this rule which is why I predict it'll be regular thin screens with super fast internet, and more bulky (size of current iPhones) with replaceable lens and specialized GPUs for processing raw camera input.
This is more obvious with games - instead of everyone having a 2k gaming rig, everyone will have a 200$ monitor with a fast internet connection, connecting to super-computers run by Google. It's basically Unix multi-user, except now done via 'the cloud'. That's the future - and Apple has no place in it with its 30% profit margins on hardware.
I think Apple knows it in the long term too, which is why they're slowly and awfully, getting into content aka games and tv.
This generation could indeed mount the first meaningful blow to legacy PC-based gear as primary device, but it's not coming from a competitor.
> Once Windows and Mac are finished, it'll only be a matter of coming up with a new phone os...
Did you miss Apple's "What's a computer?" campaign?
iPadOS 13 is the new tablet usability OS for the only primary device quality tablet on the market.
Using a USB-C dock, my same desktop gear works with my MacBook or my iPad Pro. I can even use my full size monitor, keyboard, and trackball driving Windows in a Citrix VDI.
- - -
> In fact I predict the next big consumer hit will be a point-and-shoot camera with a phone os.
That was already a thing in 2012: Samsung Galaxy Camera. They also tried the Samsung Galaxy NX, and the Samsung Galaxy Camera 2.
Didn't catch on, but hasn't stopped people from trying over and over:
https://www.theverge.com/circuitbreaker/2018/11/5/18064048/y...
Started shipping this August in China:
http://thenewcamera.com/yongnuo-yn450-4g-mirrorless-shipping...
Turns out, it's pretty difficult to beat the utility of "the camera you have with you" form factor of a more typically shaped smartphone.