> ..because CA locked down in a timely way. How do you know hospitals wouldn't have been overrun otherwise? They were in some places (Italy). This is playing out in real time after all, and nobody has a crystal ball, especially not Elon Musk.
Well, New York is a great comparison, but let's pretend that the lockdown did avoid an overrun in California and that otherwise it would have happened.
As I indicated, given that the vast majority of these (highly important) elective surgeries are out-patient, there is not a huge need to plan ahead when it comes to suspending surgeries. On the contrary, when we do realize that we are at capacity we can suspend elective surgeries at that moment and no sooner.
BTW, the utility of elective surgeries should always be counterbalanced against the utility of extra beds for COVID-19 patients. Many of these elective surgeries are still more important than COVID-19 treatment even when we hit an overrun scenario. So it very much depends on the surgery in question, and such blanket suspensions are a very bad idea.
> Now, there are early indications that reopening is resulting in new outbreaks, like at the night clubs in South Korea.
Right, which is precisely why the practice of indefinite containment is so flawed. Once you start doing it you can basically never stop (until you've teched up to a vaccine / game changer treatment)
Well, New York is a great comparison, but let's pretend that the lockdown did avoid an overrun in California and that otherwise it would have happened.
As I indicated, given that the vast majority of these (highly important) elective surgeries are out-patient, there is not a huge need to plan ahead when it comes to suspending surgeries. On the contrary, when we do realize that we are at capacity we can suspend elective surgeries at that moment and no sooner.
BTW, the utility of elective surgeries should always be counterbalanced against the utility of extra beds for COVID-19 patients. Many of these elective surgeries are still more important than COVID-19 treatment even when we hit an overrun scenario. So it very much depends on the surgery in question, and such blanket suspensions are a very bad idea.
> Now, there are early indications that reopening is resulting in new outbreaks, like at the night clubs in South Korea.
Right, which is precisely why the practice of indefinite containment is so flawed. Once you start doing it you can basically never stop (until you've teched up to a vaccine / game changer treatment)