> There's nothing indicating that this initiative is any more serious.
I think Artemis 1 and 2 are very likely to happen. The hardware for Artemis 1 is fully constructed, they are just in the final testing/bugfixing phases; hardware for Artemis 2 is currently under construction. Probably going to take longer than they plan, but they'll get there. They are politically very difficult to kill because of how much money has been invested in it, the lobbying power of the contractors on them, the international cooperation with the Europeans (who contribute Orion's service module). That is just sending people in orbit around the moon (as in Apollo 8), not landing on it.
I think it is also very likely that something like SpaceX DearMoon is going to happen (probably even that specific mission, but if not that one, some other). The market exists – billionaires – it isn't a huge market, but it is enough to make a successful business out of it. But that is still in the Apollo 8 rather than Apollo 11 category.
Moving ahead, I think some kind of human landing on the moon is very likely eventually – whether or not the current NASA Human Landing System procurement leads to it. If a government space agency doesn't eventually do it, probably sooner or later private space tourism will.
NASA's current goal of 2024 is unrealistic, but I think it is very likely people will return to the Moon's surface within the next 20 years.
I think Artemis 1 and 2 are very likely to happen. The hardware for Artemis 1 is fully constructed, they are just in the final testing/bugfixing phases; hardware for Artemis 2 is currently under construction. Probably going to take longer than they plan, but they'll get there. They are politically very difficult to kill because of how much money has been invested in it, the lobbying power of the contractors on them, the international cooperation with the Europeans (who contribute Orion's service module). That is just sending people in orbit around the moon (as in Apollo 8), not landing on it.
I think it is also very likely that something like SpaceX DearMoon is going to happen (probably even that specific mission, but if not that one, some other). The market exists – billionaires – it isn't a huge market, but it is enough to make a successful business out of it. But that is still in the Apollo 8 rather than Apollo 11 category.
Moving ahead, I think some kind of human landing on the moon is very likely eventually – whether or not the current NASA Human Landing System procurement leads to it. If a government space agency doesn't eventually do it, probably sooner or later private space tourism will.
NASA's current goal of 2024 is unrealistic, but I think it is very likely people will return to the Moon's surface within the next 20 years.