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That's the congressional vote, which suffers from gerrymandering.

In raw numbers, far more people support the Democrats than the Republicans.



Its polling data, not an actual vote.

According to this CNBC poll[1], on the question of "party preference to control Congress", the Republicans come out ahead. Its close, but hardly the landslide Democrat victory you would expect if nobody supports the GOP.

I would recommend you take another look at the polling data[2]. It might help pop some bubbles.

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/20/gop-holds-big-leads-on-key-e...

[2] https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-...


It's the generic congressional vote, which is simply the percent of people polled who prefer either party. It's analogous to the popular vote for President, not the percent of seats either party is predicted to win.


All the surveys are only of "likely voters". People who live in heavily gerrymandered districts tend to say "I'm not planning on voting". Also a lot of younger people who generally support Democrats aren't even included in the surveys.


If this were generally true, you'd see more polls erring in favor of Republicans. I can't recall any mainstream polling misses that have; do you have any references?


Many races only have candidates from a single party.

Which discards votes in any such count not just from the election tallies but also likely voters.


Pollsters know that, so they phrase questions to avoid the issue, like:

"Would you rather see the Republicans or the Democrats in control of Congress, or doesn’t this matter to you?"

(from Monmouth)


That doesn’t help when you ask if someone is a likely voter and they say no because of who’s running.

Granted it doesn’t say it’s asking likely voters, but somehow they got 95% of responses say they are registered voters when only 50% of Americans are registered voters.

(Page 8) https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmout...


> somehow they got 95% of responses say they are registered voters

That's 95% of people who are old enough to respond to the poll (under 18 are excluded without reporting) and don't hang up.

I don't find it strange that people who aren't registered to vote hang up without responding to the poll.


There are many possibilities, but the point stands that it’s clearly a very biased sample. Almost 80% of people between 65-74 are registered voters but that’s still a long way from 95%.




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