I would consider it very foolish to use pure induction to bet on _exponential_ growth stopping within 1 year.
I think you can easily find plenty of other long-lasting exponential curves. A good starting point would be:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progress_studies
With perhaps the optimistic case as
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change
This is where I’d really like to be able to point to our respective Manifold predictions on the subject; we could circle back in a year’s time and review who was in fact correct. I wager internet points it will be me :)
Concretely, https://manifold.markets/JoshYou/best-ai-time-horizon-by-aug...
I would consider it very foolish to use pure induction to bet on _exponential_ growth stopping within 1 year.
I think you can easily find plenty of other long-lasting exponential curves. A good starting point would be:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progress_studies
With perhaps the optimistic case as
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change
This is where I’d really like to be able to point to our respective Manifold predictions on the subject; we could circle back in a year’s time and review who was in fact correct. I wager internet points it will be me :)
Concretely, https://manifold.markets/JoshYou/best-ai-time-horizon-by-aug...