Perceptions of public attitudes are hard to trust. What I think matters more is results, however they feel are the Iranian people actually overthrowing and forming a new government, and if not, at what point do we admit that more bombs aren't driving us closer to that kind of conclusion? Is there no cut off?
The problem with this reasoning is that it is self-contradictory. How long the Iranian government lasts is driven by how extreme they are, how resolved.
Whether they'll reopen the strait of Hormuz is also driven, in reverse, by how extreme they are. But the more extreme they are, the less likely they'll ever reopen it.
Having the strait of Hormuz closed is a big problem for Europe and China, a medium problem for the US, and an existential problem for the middle eastern countries (except Israel/Lebanon and a few others like Yemen). And ... a good thing for Russia (in fact they've been trying to get here for decades).
But the Iranian regime chooses to fight against the entire world. The correct action for Iran/IRGC, frankly obviously, is to ... guarantee the safety of ships in the Hormuz strait. Literally to the point they cooperate with the US on the water, while the US is murdering their government, while the US is torpedo-ing their ships. Really, going that far. That is required for them to have a chance to win this. But they're, literally, too stupid to see this themselves, and too extreme to take that simple truth from anyone, including their closest allies.
So my "strategic assessment" on this is, first, that it was unavoidable we'd get to this point with Iran anyway. The clock was ticking where we'd be in the same situation even if we never fired a shot, and it could just as well have happened 10 years ago. And once we're in this situation, the only way out for oil markets, but especially for middle eastern countries is fighting until the regime is out. So unfortunately we'll fight this war to the end, whatever it takes, and US/Israel will get more and more allies as it drags on (already Saudi Arabia and UAE have said they'll join the war, and if they will, everyone will. Since then France, UK, Ukraine are also looking what they can offer)
And ironically, Trump is probably forcing this because he'll lose the midterms.
It's already leading to total insanity: do you know the Taliban are currently fighting on the US and Israel's side? Right fucking now, Taliban fighters have died and are dying fighting Trump's war. I doubt anyone asked them, but here we are.
