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My interpretation is that China did the heavy lifting of pulling the world out of the last crisis. Neither the US nor Germany had the political wherewithal to do large scale stimulus and/or structural reform. The Chinese also had the most to loose.

The cost of propping up the global economy had been highly damaging to China's weak institutions if we are lucky it will recover in 20 years. If we are unlucky there will be a partial collapse.



The US has done large scale stimulus operations since 2008 (https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/113986/kkr52%207tofussti...), just not to the scale China adjusted to respective GDPs.


Not sure what you're talking about. The exact opposite is true. The US massively stimulated, including running up about $10 trillion in new federal public debt alone, which was a form of deficit stimulus. The Fed of course has been running hundreds of billions in annual stimulus.

I'd roughly estimate that the total US stimulus in all forms, from the treasury to the fed, totaled $15 to $20 trillion (some of which was repaid, eg loans to european banks, or the AIG and Fannie bailouts, or GM etc). That's two to three times the size of the entire Chinese economy.

That new federal debt paid federal salaries, contractors, welfare, social security, you name it. Those people then purchased hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods.

"U.S. Bailout, Stimulus Pledges Total $11.6 Trillion"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZchK...

The Fed kept the entire global financial system solvent during the crash. They lent huge sums to European banks.

"the central bank lent billions to foreign banks that operate in the U.S., including Germany's Deutsche Bank Securities, which got $290 billion in mortgage securities; London-based Barclay's, which received a $47.9 billion loan; France's BNP Paribas Securities, Switzerland's UBS Securities LLC and Daiwa Securities America, a subsidiary of one of Japan's largest brokerage houses."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/12/02/federal-reserve-l...


Quantitative Easing has been large but it drove investment mostly in emerging markets and not in the US.

Neither fiscal or monetary stimulus is effective in a post industrial economy like the US.

Structural reform like patents, immigration, occupational licensing, taxes etc are where the big stimulus lies unfortunately.


You're contradicting your own statement then.

You said China did the heavy lifting regarding pull the global economy out of the crash, then you say that Fed QE drove growth in emerging markets.

All that stimulus drives massive consumption, which bolsters global manufacturing. And you ignored the part where the Fed kept the entire first world solvent during the crash, that alone is more than China did.

And the US is hardly post-industrial. It's the world's largest manufacturer (yes, larger than China).




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