I think your argument holds, thanks for presenting it. The argument raises a question for me. Is their inherent hiring bias in that type of situation even without a leave policy? What I mean is, as a woman of child bearing age, if I were to get pregnant and have a child during (or immediately prior to) that 12 month runway, wouldn't I possibly be a hiring risk since even if I won't be eligible for pay, I would potentially be out of office at least temporarily. Minimum 6-8 weeks?
Having had kids (and being aware of the law and I'd like to think not an utter asshole), I'd sanction anyone on my team who raised such a concern in a hiring discussion, but I'm quite sure that it happens all the time.
Even with a policy, there would be a rational/economic basis for bias against a mid-30s newlywed (of either gender) as opposed to a fresh college grad, or a married father of 3.
Your best control/counter against such a bias is that great developers are extraordinarily valuable, and so if I knew I could get someone great, as opposed to minimally bar-clearing, I'll wait through multiple paid parental leave terms...
